Bad Advice: How to Survive and Thrive in an Age of Bullshit

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It may be explicitly painful to read but I promise I'll give you a lollipop to distract you while we apply the bandaid. Which is a shame. There is a fascinating book to be written by someone with a bit more self-reflection — someone a bit less confident, perhaps, in their thesis. Robertson divides confidence into two constituent parts: a “can happen” attitude and a “can do” attitude. If we’re trying to lose weight, say, someone might tell us to eat a healthier diet and take more exercise.

When you’re heartbroken, what do you hear? You can’t love anyone until you love yourself. When someone’s hurt you? Nobody can make you feel bad without your permission. When you’re just a little too positive? Expectations lead to disappointment. I am in love with every part of this book, everyone! It is not just a typical self-help book that the readers can find on any bookshelf. Yet it is a masterpiece that breaks down the flaws of all the stereotypical pieces of advice we regularly receive while suggesting good pieces of advice that are useful and applicable for us.So creating bullshit is easy; refuting it is hard. And it is precisely this asymmetry that explains why bullshit persists and how it can even grow over time.

Of course there is never complete concensus about a topic, but how can a field be considered ‘debunked’ when a paper published in the journal Nature showing positive results in a randomized controlled trial of several thousand people (1). How can this and several other complex fields with inevitably mixed results be so lazily dismissed? Spin. Fake News. Conspiracy theories. Lies. We are daily confronted with a stinking quagmire of misinformation, disinformation and fact-free drivel. How do we sort the truth from the lies? This is the premise of the timely new book, Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World (Allen Lane/Random House, 2020), a book that effectively acts as a field guide to the art of scepticism. The authors are expert guides. Carl Bergstrom is a theoretical and evolutionary biologist who researches how information flows through biological and social networks. Jevin West is a data scientist who studies misinformation in science and society. Together, they teach a popular undergraduate class offered under the same name by the University of Washington. One of my favorite chapters, chapter 8, has the authors calling bullshit on arguments that claim that artificial intelligence will take over the world. This has always been bullshit and likely always will be, as the authors demonstrate the limits of how machines are designed to “think.”Confidence and over-confidence are near enough the same concept. Even deliberately over-stating one’s confidence isn’t bullshit but instead simply deception or lying. There is a surfeit of ‘trade books’ about science which promote one ‘thing’ (confidence, a particular hormone, the effects of a single personality, one particular substance) and ignore everything else. You can argue that science is obliged to tease out particular factors and discount the rest. It can be an interesting read.

Tom, you clearly think confidence is a cod and this strongly-held opinion trumps a fair-minded scrutiny of the scientific literature. Of course, the one I've read most recently is always the best...no, really, this one may be. Highly and indiscriminately recommended. We all need less bullshit to wade through, especially those of us who are reading while walking and might be more vulnerable by dint of just not paying attention.I have to agree with Mr. Chivers regarding the poor quality of research and the replication crisis. However, regarding Confidence there are two aspects. I also think that’s what justifies Donald Trump’s picture. His overconfidence has done him far more harm than good.